The Aral Sea is a closed system, water flows in mainly from two rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya , but water does no flow out of the Aral. The only natural water loss is via evaporation, and a great deal of water is lost by way of this proccess. The sources of the river water are glaciers high up in the Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountains to the southeast of the Aral Sea. The Amu Darya, historically known as the Oxus, begins in the Pamir Mountains in Ubekistan and travels 1578 miles to the Aral.

The Syr Darya, historically known as the Jaxartes, begins in the Tien Shan Mountain Range in Kazakstan and travels 1370 miles to the Aral. Because it is a closed system, the Aral Sea historically has a good indicator of global changes. Since the Pliocene Epoch (more than 2 million years), the Aral depression has been repeatedly flooded and desiccated (dried up). During cooling/glacial periods, the Aral Sea decreased in size because water was tied up in glaciers. During periods of global warming (inter-glacial periods), glaciers melted, and the volume of the Aral Sea increased. The Aral Sea has always been in a state of flux because of its sensitivity to natural changes in the global environment.

The current condition of the Aral Sea is a human created situation which is not necessarily any worse than the natural cycle has produced in past years. However, the existing change is in the opposite direction of what nature would dictate. Presently world wide, glaciers are regressing and global sea level is on the rise. It's controversial whether this is part of a natural cycle (we are currently in an interglacial period) or caused by human induced global warming (increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere). The Aral Sea should be getting fuller, but it isn't. The volume of the nearby Caspian Sea is increasing, which also causes a host of problems.

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